Friday, October 12, 2012

The Gas Price Lie

I am fact checker.  Those who know me understand my positions are data driven (mostly). 
Which is one of the reasons I so enjoy many of the fact checking sites that have pervaded the internet over the last decade.

But I was sorely let down last week when I read FactCheck's "Obama's Numbers".

Lots of information there.  I have not verified most of it - but a quick perusal showed one that seemed glaringly wrong.  Specifically that gas prices have risen 106% under Obama's term thus far.
Now mind you, I honestly don't think presidents have much say or impact on the matter.  But we know that in the weeks leading up to the election, lots of misinformation (a.k.a lies) are thrown around by both parties. 
And this one particularly irks me.  Why?  Because it is such a straightforward check that can be so easily dismissed!   So how did FactCheck miss this as well?  Let's take a look.
This represents the last 8 years of average gas prices.  You will notice that right around when Bush left office, we had radically low gas prices.  Between $1.60 and $1.80 a gallon.  Current prices are now in the mid to upper $3 dollars.  Using these 2 points - we get the numbers FactCheck generated. 

We could end the story there, but should not.  Taking the data and running the numbers, we get that during Bush's first term prices averaged $1.66 / gallon.  During Bush's second term prices averaged $2.91 / gallon.  A nice 75% price increase.  During Obama's term thus far, prices averaged $3.13 /gallon.  A reasonable 7-8% price increase.

So the next time someone lies to you about this - call them out.  Embarrass them for parroting bad information.  If they are sticking to the party line - and insist on their cherry picked number - remind them that the only reason prices were as low on Bush's exit was because we had a global economic meltdown.  I am surprised they want to use that to their credit.

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