Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Climate Change & Sandy


If you have not heard about Climate Change - you are to be congratulated. That level of isolation is truly hard to come by... you will probably live longer and happier than most of us :-)

If you have - I am sure it is also not news to you that the topic makes a resurgence in the headlines every time a weather event such as Sandy occurs.  Those who feel it is important to proselytize the masses with their concern can point to such events and say "See... Climate Change... we told you so".  And those who for various reasons choose to remain skeptical of the science discount these events as nothing more than the natural variation endemic to weather.

For me?  For once I would say they are both right, or wrong - take your pick.
Here is how I build an analogy - simplistic as it may be.

Suppose you are playing a game of dice.  You pick.  Also assume that someone has loaded the dice in such a way that the odds of hitting snake eyes is a little higher.  Let's even assume that you know the dice are loaded.  First off, I am pretty sure that if in the game you are playing snake eyes is not a good roll, you will not want to be the player using them!  But for argument sake, you do. 
Do you claim then, that every snake eyes you roll is a direct result of the dice being loaded?  Of course not.  That is just silliness.  But over time, with careful bookkeeping - you will see more of them than if you had fair dice. 
Climate change is similar.  A warming planet loads the weather dice.  To point to any one weather event and claim it is a direct result of climate change is wrong headed - and is really a misrepresentation of how climate change works.  This weather event is just one roll of the dice. 

 

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