Climate Change & Sandy

If you have not heard about Climate Change - you are to be congratulated. That level of isolation is truly hard to come by... you will probably live longer and happier than most of us :-)

If you have - I am sure it is also not news to you that the topic makes a resurgence in the headlines every time a weather event such as Sandy occurs.  Those who feel it is important to proselytize the masses with their concern can point to such events and say "See... Climate Change... we told you so".  And those who for various reasons choose to remain skeptical of the science discount these events as nothing more than the natural variation endemic to weather.

For me?  For once I would say they are both right, or wrong - take your pick.
Here is how I build an analogy - simplistic as it may be.

Suppose you are playing a game of dice.  You pick.  Also assume that someone has loaded the dice in such a way that the odds of hitting snake eyes is a little higher.  Let's even assume that you know the dice are loaded.  First off, I am pretty sure that if in the game you are playing snake eyes is not a good roll, you will not want to be the player using them!  But for argument sake, you do. 
Do you claim then, that every snake eyes you roll is a direct result of the dice being loaded?  Of course not.  That is just silliness.  But over time, with careful bookkeeping - you will see more of them than if you had fair dice. 
Climate change is similar.  A warming planet loads the weather dice.  To point to any one weather event and claim it is a direct result of climate change is wrong headed - and is really a misrepresentation of how climate change works.  This weather event is just one roll of the dice. 

 

The Gas Price Lie

I am fact checker.  Those who know me understand my positions are data driven (mostly). 
Which is one of the reasons I so enjoy many of the fact checking sites that have pervaded the internet over the last decade.

But I was sorely let down last week when I read FactCheck's "Obama's Numbers".

Lots of information there.  I have not verified most of it - but a quick perusal showed one that seemed glaringly wrong.  Specifically that gas prices have risen 106% under Obama's term thus far.
Now mind you, I honestly don't think presidents have much say or impact on the matter.  But we know that in the weeks leading up to the election, lots of misinformation (a.k.a lies) are thrown around by both parties. 
And this one particularly irks me.  Why?  Because it is such a straightforward check that can be so easily dismissed!   So how did FactCheck miss this as well?  Let's take a look.

This represents the last 8 years of average gas prices.  You will notice that right around when Bush left office, we had radically low gas prices.  Between $1.60 and $1.80 a gallon.  Current prices are now in the mid to upper $3 dollars.  Using these 2 points - we get the numbers FactCheck generated. 

We could end the story there, but should not.  Taking the data and running the numbers, we get that during Bush's first term prices averaged $1.66 / gallon.  During Bush's second term prices averaged $2.91 / gallon.  A nice 75% price increase.  During Obama's term thus far, prices averaged $3.13 /gallon.  A reasonable 7-8% price increase.

So the next time someone lies to you about this - call them out.  Embarrass them for parroting bad information.  If they are sticking to the party line - and insist on their cherry picked number - remind them that the only reason prices were as low on Bush's exit was because we had a global economic meltdown.  I am surprised they want to use that to their credit.