Obama / McCain Debate

For anyone who asks - my political leanings and preferences are not a secret.
So let me start by saying that I consider myself an independent, and could vote republican, democrat, or any other party if I felt the candidate would do his/her job successfully.
This year, barring any large surprises, I will vote for Obama.

So now that my political leanings and biases are well established - here is my take on last night's debate.

1. Even if McCain does not respect Obama's politics or opinions, he should respect HIM. He was disrespectful and condescending last night. Not a trait I want to see any more of in this county's executive branch.
2. Obama may be a little hurt by being overly respectful. To concede that your opponent is occasionally right (i.e. you agree with him), works well in most arenas (barring politics). He might have instead used the words "I am glad, Senator McCain, that you agree with my position on... . Same thing, but assumes ownership of the idea.
3. Did anyone notice McCain's odd mannerisms every time Obama spoke? It was painful to watch. I know McCain was trying to use Obama's air-time to silently communicate disagreement, amusement and condescension. If that was an overt strategy on his part, in my opinion it is something he should immediately discontinue.
4. Obama still panders a little too much for my liking. Example - McCain touted that he wears a POW bracelet. Mind you, I really couldn't care less. Instead of letting it pass uncommented, Obama said he too wore one. Now I *think* he was trying to say "so what if you wear one, how exactly does that qualify you to be president?". In these ridiculously political days - he could not say that without offending some veterans, or being misquoted. He should have let McCain's comment slide.
5. McCain's intent was a little to single-minded and obvious. He wants to mention that he is the candidate with experience. Barrak is too young, too inexperienced, and naive. However, the punch was missing. For me to make that point, I need to expound on HOW my opponent is displaying that naivete. He failed to do that. In fact, there were several occasions when Obama spoke about a topic; McCain followed up with his too oft spoken "You just don't understand", and then proceeded to repeat the same basic points Obama said. Sorta takes the punch out of the take home when you speak from both sides of your mouth.

For my take, I score Obama a 7 out of 10. McCain a 4 out of 10. Both need to improve to differing degrees.

How business is done

As a general rule, business exists where profit can be made. Pretty basic stuff. Nothing wrong with making a profit. Of course, to make a profit, I usually have to sell something. Usually goods or services. When the supply greatly exceeds demand, prices tend to asymptotically approach the "zero profit" line. This is not really good for business, and tends to dispose of the more inefficient companies, and discourage new entrants into this market. In the end, a fairly good
balance can take place with proper free market driving forces. Everyone benefits, both consumer and business.

But how does this translate to the oil industry?

For starters, you are not very likely today to see many new entries into this market. It takes too much money to get started, and small businesses just don't have the economies of scale necessary to be competitive. So very limited competition.

On the demand end - how much choice does the average person have to reduce gas consumption? There is a little wiggle room, but not much. So we have a fairly fixed demand on a per capita basis, at least here in the USA. (Side note - if we were talking the lobster business, and prices tripled, people would stop eating lobster. Problem solved. But since the world's industry is based largely on oil - price increases will become inflationary).

Everyone knows that oil reserve supplies are limited, yet I am not of the opinion that this is THE reason for the price hikes we have seen over the last 2-3 years. The key suppliers of crude have made sure to allocate production to "match" demand. In the oil industry, excess is difficult to maintain, as you can only store so much oil. So one might infer that this is just how this business needs to be run. But wait. Haven't global markets recently stretched supplies? Driven prices upward? Indeed. And there were few industry experts who were surprised. We have had no fewer than 5-10 years "notice". So why wasn't the industry prepared?

Because that would be bad business. A couple minor shortfalls in supply do wonders for prices. And everybody in the business celebrates. Crude oil suppliers, refiners, and oil/gas distributers. Executives get well deserved pats on that back and record shattering bonuses, stock options, retirement benefits, etc. Again, nothing new about this.

Just don't expect drilling to add much to global market supplies. And don't be so naive to think that if we drill in the USA, or off-shore, that we somehow have dibs on this supply. Unless this country abandons the free market realm and nationalizes the oil industry - oil drilled here will be sold on the world market. Of course, even this is short-sighted. What incentive do oil companies have in off-shore drilling? They have a winning combination right this moment, and they have no desire to invest many billions of dollars in additional off-shore drilling that will only serve to reduce their profit margin. There are allocated lands on-shore today they have not drilled. There may be many reasons, the largest is lack of incentive.

So why do you suppose there is such a "drill, and drill now" mantra being spoken by both sides of the aisle? Because the sheeple want to think that their government is looking out for them, and government is all too willing to strike any pose to garner their votes. End of story.

The prevailing belief is that we have an oil shortage. It is a myth. Oil production has never been higher. The world demand has just outstripped this and other nations' abilities to REFINE the oil. So drill all we want, if the refining capacity is not increased, then we have no more gas.
Will there be ANY winners in the "drill now" crowd? Minimal. Add a couple percentage points (at most) to global oil supplies starting in 10 years or so. Employ a few thousand people. Make people *feel* better, even if they pay the same price at the pump.

Who loses? The environment. Our trust that the government can address a problem with a real solution. Politician's honesty.

The longer we keep looking in the wrong places, with simple-minded solutions to complex problems, the harder the fall will be when we get caught with our pants further down than they already are. Government and big business make for a nefarious combination when allied against the people. And although we the people hold the trump card, we refuse to play it. When we do, we can only hope it won't be too late.