Ok - so I just used a title that may have more buzz and controversy associated with it than any other I am likely to use again.
The genesis for this post came from the latest article I read about Global Warming. Or rather, the 260 comments left on the ABC news article. I didn't read them all. After a while they all tended to one of a number of equivalent slants. From "Global Warming is the greatest hoax to be perpetrated" to "We are all about to die". There is much fertile middle ground where the real answer is most likely to exist.
However I digress. One of the assumptions (or at least simplifications) used by many for this and many other arguments, is that this planet is a closed system. In physics, a closed system must obey certain laws. Conservation of energy (1st law of thermodynamics) and the increase in entropy or randomness (2nd law of thermodynamics) to name a couple.
But we can be thankful that this is not the case.
The genesis for this post came from the latest article I read about Global Warming. Or rather, the 260 comments left on the ABC news article. I didn't read them all. After a while they all tended to one of a number of equivalent slants. From "Global Warming is the greatest hoax to be perpetrated" to "We are all about to die". There is much fertile middle ground where the real answer is most likely to exist.
However I digress. One of the assumptions (or at least simplifications) used by many for this and many other arguments, is that this planet is a closed system. In physics, a closed system must obey certain laws. Conservation of energy (1st law of thermodynamics) and the increase in entropy or randomness (2nd law of thermodynamics) to name a couple.
But we can be thankful that this is not the case.
Sunshine abounds, energizing and allowing life to thrive on this planet. Without sunshine, the Earth's albeto would have left our plant cold and lifeless long ago.
Solar and galactic radiation bombard our planet every moment - providing some of the necessary elements for weather and change. We may slather ourselves with sunscreens and lotions to avoid the abuse of solar radiation - but without it, aeons ago our ancestral lines might have never progressed to leave the oceans.
While there are few things that can compete with the fate of the human race, some physicists have pondered the question on a more cosmic scale. They believe that the universe is cooling down (doesn't that sound like a good balancer to global warming?). That is one more way of saying entropy is increasing, and the available "useful" energy that can do work and support life is diminishing. Ok, the process is purportedly going to take billions of years to happen. You and I, and likely humanity as a whole will never have to address this impending universal Armageddon. So why bring this up? Because humanity consistently sizes their universe to the size of their imagination. You can guess which one wins. I have read enough physics (and fiction I admit) to be of the opinion that even our universe is unlikely to fall in the "closed system" category. I can't imagine what lies outside this universe. It could be that we live in what some have called a "foam" of universes. Or there may be nearly infinite universes, each existing as a finite probability. No matter what though, scientists can only base their hypothesis and theories on what is observable today. But if any of these assumptions are wrong... then some of the more basic tenets of science could be but approximations to a greater truth. And if there are more universes that can interact with this one - then maybe the end science foresees for this universe will not come to pass.
Solar and galactic radiation bombard our planet every moment - providing some of the necessary elements for weather and change. We may slather ourselves with sunscreens and lotions to avoid the abuse of solar radiation - but without it, aeons ago our ancestral lines might have never progressed to leave the oceans.
While there are few things that can compete with the fate of the human race, some physicists have pondered the question on a more cosmic scale. They believe that the universe is cooling down (doesn't that sound like a good balancer to global warming?). That is one more way of saying entropy is increasing, and the available "useful" energy that can do work and support life is diminishing. Ok, the process is purportedly going to take billions of years to happen. You and I, and likely humanity as a whole will never have to address this impending universal Armageddon. So why bring this up? Because humanity consistently sizes their universe to the size of their imagination. You can guess which one wins. I have read enough physics (and fiction I admit) to be of the opinion that even our universe is unlikely to fall in the "closed system" category. I can't imagine what lies outside this universe. It could be that we live in what some have called a "foam" of universes. Or there may be nearly infinite universes, each existing as a finite probability. No matter what though, scientists can only base their hypothesis and theories on what is observable today. But if any of these assumptions are wrong... then some of the more basic tenets of science could be but approximations to a greater truth. And if there are more universes that can interact with this one - then maybe the end science foresees for this universe will not come to pass.
We can only hope that our small world will be saved from Global Warming by similar short sighted mistakes and assumptions the majority of scientists and climatologists espouse!
4 comments:
Where in blazes did you learn all this stuff ? Perhaps you should define entropy lest you confuse
your readers ( Like me)
Wow, Tom~I had no idea you were actually blogging here. Fantastic!
All of this subject matter is very close to my heart (and incidentally, to my academic discipline). I shall comment more later, to be sure.
On a side note, I am really impressed with how intelligent and interesting our family is.
~F
Very interesting, indeed, the family and the content of your blog, which reflects the superior genes our immediate ancestors provided us with.
I think you are right, Tom, somewhere in the middle lies the truth, but we will most likely not be around to witness which it will be.
Though there is only so much we can sqeeze out of the planet, it will take a long time before depletion takes place.
More probable is that the planet's demise will not come about because of natural catastrophies, but because of mankind's failure to make peace and his ever-increasing ability to create weapons of mass destruction.
You fail to mention that the simplifying assumption of the closed loop system is necessary in order for them to model (and thus predict) what will happen. As with all sciences and methodolgies the assumptions can make or break the hypothesis. There are as many predictions as there are modellers cause they all make slightly different assumptions. One can think of this a little bit like weather forecasting (make your own conclusion about the accuracy herein). I say we should all start taking some small steps to help and hope that it provides us with some insurance for the future.
Nancy
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